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| "There was once a dream that was Rome. You could only...whisper it." |
And while the worst nuclear accident in decades killed or harmed no one and caused no off-site damage whatsoever, unlike myself most of the world wasn't particularly impressed. On the contrary, the response to Fukushima was an extraordinary overreaction of fear and repulsion. This has set back the development of nuclear power, because governments are affected by this narrative of fear, and in addition are captive to a lesser or greater extent to the influence of the fossil fuel industry.
But let's imagine that governments and people could make much more rational decisions, decisions based not on ideology and fear and the influence of entrenched forces but on sound principles of utilitarianism, scientific rigor, economic cost and environmental sustainability.
A world in which 60%... no, 80%...hey, why not, 95% of the electricity is supplied by nuclear energy. What would such a world be like?
For starters, electricity would be much less expensive. One of the great criticisms made of nuclear power is that it is very expensive.
And this is 100% correct. Compared to coal, oil and gas plants, nuclear plants are expensive to finance and take a long time to build.
Yet simultaneously, nuclear reactors are incredibly cheap. This contradiction can be resolved when it is noted that the significant costs associated with nuclear technology don't in any real way reflect any particular engineering restraints. The costs are imposed by humans, and consist of multiple layers of bureaucracy, political opposition and redundant layers of 'safety' measures that often bear no relation to real issues of risk management. The construction and planning costs imposed by the Japanese Nuclear Regulation Authority on idle reactors that want to restart - amounting to up to $1billion per reactor - are a good example of this.
So nuclear plants currently cost much more than they should. There may be some sinister (read: fossil-fuel backed) forces behind this. In fact, some argue that the current costs imposed on the construction of nuclear plants is the only way to keep the price high enough that other sources of power have any hope at all of competing. Restrictions and standards of safety are imposed on nuclear construction, for example, that would never be allowed in the fossil-fuel industry, despite its incomparably worse safety record.
So let's imagine that nuclear plants can be built with construction costs that reflect real engineering challenges and accurate measures of risk. We now have extremely cheap electricity. It's safe, it's cheap, it's reliable. It's base-load power that your society needs.
Yet this is only the beginning, the absolute baseline, in terms of efficiency and cost. One of the most promising things about nuclear technology is that current reactors only use about 5% of the energy in the uranium fuel. The other 95% is just part of the 'waste'. Unlike the case of the fossil-fuel industry, with a development curve that is reaching its technological peak in the face of dwindling supplies of fuel, nuclear technology has just begun to develop.
Most plants in operation today are Generation 2 plants, constructed in the 70s, 80s and 90s. Fukushima Daiichi was a Gen 2 plant. They can produce power, but are obsolete compared to the demands of this century. Generation 3 plants are currently being constructed in several countries, including the very impressive AP1000, with units being built in Virginia, USA and China.
Generation 4 plants are being designed. These wonderful things will be able to burn much more or all of the fuel in uranium, will be built will full passive safety, and will burn what is now nuclear 'waste'. In fact, current stocks of nuclear waste can provide the world's electricity for hundreds of years to come. There are many Gen 4 designs. You can see Bill Gates waxing lyrical about his Traveling Wave Reactor here.
As the burning of fossil fuels is responsible for the bulk of the world's CO2 emissions, global warming will be mitigated to the full extent that is possible in this reality, especially if we also dare to dream that gasoline-powered cars will be completely replaced by electric vehicles.
This electricity will also be supplied without the massive costs, unreliability and environmental impacts associated with 'renewable' energy. No threats of brownouts or blackouts, no need for draconian energy conservation measures, no imposition of wind turbines where they aren't wanted, to decimate local bat or bird populations. No toxic waste left over from old solar panels. No hydroelectric dams built in wilderness areas. And most of all, no deceptions continued by the government on energy policy, where the public is sold greenwashed renewable projects while the bulk of actual power is produced by the fossil fuel industry.
It's virtually impossible to overstate the importance of fossil fuels being abandoned. Cities cleaner and purer than you can imagine. 2 million lives a year saved because air pollution is drastically reduced. No more mercury in the oceans, poisoning our seafood supply. No more acid rain, scorching forests from China to Poland. No more face mask in news bulletins from Beijing. No more mine explosions killing 200 or 300 people at a time in Szechuan province.
And while I suspect that Middle East politics is so fiendishly complicated and intractable that nothing short of divine intervention would resolve everything, few would object to the assertion that oil is a factor. There is a reason that 12 years ago both North Korea and Iraq were suspected of building nuclear weapons, and that now North Korea has nuclear weapons that nobody seems too bothered about, while Iraq is a bombed-out anarchic failed state overrun by militants who behead people for fun.
Imagine if fuel could be imported completely from stable democracies like Australia and Canada. Imagine if The United States had no need to maintain oil supplies from the Middle East. Imagine if you could extract enough fuel from seawater to power your civilization for millions of years, because you can.
